Confusion

It’s getting hazier and hazier by the day in Iran. While human rights abuse cases keep streaming out of the country much to the dismay of many people following the situation, most of the rest of the news is marred in confusion. Many of the former have good intentions, but under these circumstances, you cannot really blame them for inadvertently causing uncertainty.

The only thing that looks solid at this point is that a protest is in the works and will take place on December 7, 16 Azar. Beyond that even the best of minds fail. What is actually going on behind the Green Movement’s closed doors? What is the government planning? What is the population thinking? Everything coming out at this point is uncertain beyond the first claim. As a journalist who’s lived his life attempting to uncover facts, I feel anxious as I’m forced into making educated guesses and at the same time forcing myself to not make the waters murkier for anyone trying to get a good grip of the situation.

This might be confusing to some because I have indeed written quite a lot that is pure speculation. Am I proud of that? Certainly not. Did it work? It sure as hell did. But what my problem is that this is an experiment for me. How do you cover news when you yourself are not sure that what you’re writing is even 80% true? The burden of professional ethics is heavy enough. Add to that the moral burden and you have a damning mix.

It has been so confusing covering this that there are days when I myself don’t know just what the hell I am writing. Luckily at the end of the day, most of it comes out to be true. Just how that happens is anyone’s guess. I guess I’m either lucky or I ignore my mistakes. But I guess for now, there is no real escaping the truth.

The next big protest is only 8 days away. I have spent almost 6 months reading and partly covering Iran and believe me I have yet to come up with a workable method of discerning truth from fiction. I have two choices. I could either sit back and not write or do what I’ve been doing for these past few months i.e. tweet, facebookpost, blog, write Op/Eds and so on. Will I finally be able to get a hang of it? Will everyone else be able to perfect their own ways of dealing with this? Will confusions finally end? Let’s hope we’re able to do that.

My only hope is that at the end of the day, as I thread these waters personally and write more about Iran, I’m able to not only represent more facts, but am also able to dispel some of the confusion that I have also contributed to. Tomorrow is a new day.

Uganda

The Times of London reported earlier that the bill has now gone to the parliament and actually has a fairly good chance of becoming law. Here are some of the highlights:

According to the bill, a person who is convicted of gay sex is liable for life imprisonment and death for a second offense. It also states that if a person engaging in gay sex is also HIV positive he/she would be sentenced to death under the heading “aggravated homosexuality.”

But the bill doesn’t just stop there. It has even more outrageous propositions:

In addition, the bill proposes seven-year prison sentences for discussing homosexuality and for anyone who defends the rights of gays and lesbians, and a three-year prison sentence for anyone who is aware of evidence of homosexuality and fails to report it to the police within 24 hours.

Even though homosexuality is illegal in most African countries, this new bill proposes some of the most severe punishments for homosexuality anywhere in world. Not only is it inhumane and unjust, but raises questions about the commitment of the Ugandan government to human rights. I’m hoping this is not what the Ugandan public thinks, but rather that it is the brainchild of a few conservative politicians. But you never know these days.

Already Canada, the United Kingdom and the US have raised voices of opposition to this bill, but it is still relatively unknown outside of political circles. Please raise your voice now against this barbaric act. A petition is currently in the works and I’ll post it as soon as I can get my hands on it.

What you can do in the mean time:

Please email or call the principle sponsor and architect of the bill, David Bahati MP, and show your discontent.

His email/phone Information:

http://www.parliament.go.ug/mpdata/mps.hei?p=f&n=t&details=t&j=339&const=Ndorwa+County+West&dist_id=55&distname=Kabale

Actual Text of the Bill

http://gayuganda.blogspot.com/2009/10/anti-homosexuality-bill-2009.html

karroubi-mehdi-2~s600x600(This statement was published by Tagheer.net which is an Iranian website linked to Etemaade Melli – Mehadi Karroubi’s party. The website doesn’t indicate when the statement was recorded, but the date on the page is of November 7.  It is in Persian and you can find the downloadable audio and video files here: http://tagheer.co.cc/fa/archives/1388,08,17/1016 – There is also a YouTube video of the statement: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ayrQJRy8Jrs . I must add that translation is never perfect, nonetheless, I have tried my best to render the statement into English as best I can – apologies for any mistakes you might find.)

One of the most important happenings that took place after the revolution was the takeover of the American Embassy – both for those who supported it and those who opposed it and annually, actions were taken to commemorate this event. This year, keeping in mind the current situation in the country, some political groups made announcements and I also announced that I would come to Hafte Tir Square and from Hafte Tir would go towards the [American] Embassy. I had especially told the masses that wherever deviating slogans were chanted, I would stop there so that people wouldn’t chant these slogans and those who do could be separated from me.

What we did was when we reached Hafte Tir, they stood before. There was police there and they were treating people very violently. I stopped because I thought maybe they would rethink their actions and because of my participation at least allow me to cross through [their lines]. But to the contrary, they became more violent and even struck my guards with batons, injuring two of them and even threw tear gas [at us] that was very strong and powerful which caused the masses to disperse and some were facing suffocation. We got back in the vehicle and turned back and on our way back witnessed violence against women which is very cruel and bad for us.

What I’m wondering about is why did this have to happen? These people were going to come and gather round the Embassy. Some would say “Death to America” and some might have not said that and said something else like “Islamic Republic”, but we would have tried so that they wouldn’t chant deviating slogans.

But the question I have is more important and it is the dual policies of the Islamic Republic (Uses an Persian proverb that illustrates the situation) ‘Dome Khoroos of Qasame Abbas’. The Islamic Republic until recently was always striving to change its policy. They would congratulate and send letters [to America] – which wouldn’t even receive replies but [the Iranians] would still try to continue the debate. I cannot read this statement here so I invite my dear viewers and listeners to it. It is a discussions by Mir Tajuddini – the representative of the people of Tabriz – and has been published after his trip [abroad] in an Iranian newspaper. In that, he says that there was a meeting where around 50 important American personalities – including politicians, academics and reporters and analysts – met the president and we were present which lasted for over two hours and we had a good discussion.

And I as a political participant say that if such a meeting had been held in the past twenty years at any time during any government, most certainly Kafanposhan (protesters who wear white cloth which is what dead bodies are wrapped in by Muslims before they’re buried) would have come out to the streets in Qom, Tabriz and Tehran especially and firmly fought against this. Now how is it so that when such meetings and discussions are held, they bring about no complications and serial dailys like Keyhan and others don’t even discuss it and no one raises any objections? So now, what has really happened for all this renewed anti-American sentiment, anti-American slogans and Anti-American propaganda?

I neither say that such slogans be chanted nor not be chanted. What I want to say is that the national interest of the people of Iran shouldn’t be exploited by us within the government every day based on our analyses which are kept secret and are not revealed to the public.

In one meeting they sit with 50 Americans and have discussions about Iranian-American relations, Afghanistan, atomic energy, petroleum and other issues and then the next day they destroy everything [He speaks metaphorically, the English phrase would be they force things back to square one). I feel that these policies would create problems for the situation of our people and it looks like the government is lost and doesn’t know what to do. And I understand this to be my responsibility to clarify things even if they bring repercussions, for which I do not care. This dual policy is going to erode people’s trust and tomorrow, they won’t believe our words – they shouldn’t.

So November 4 in Iran is over. Iranians all over the country came out in big and small numbers yet again to demand that their rights be granted and that the government stop its oppression. They chanted slogans, marched through the streets and showed that they still exist. The government sent out its violators to brutalize the peaceful masses and then describe them as ‘goons’ who it claimed only numbered in dozens and who were out to destroy property. The saga has been continuing since June and it has been fascinating to witness.Twitter

But it is no less fascinating to experience the steady stream of involvement from outside Iran through social networking sites for this cause. It comes from a variety of sources. Iranians abroad, human rights activists, liberals, conservatives, libertarians, independents… the list goes on. The interest that the situation in Iran has sparked is unparalleled since the introduction of social networking sites. I have followed many situations like this before, though, this is the first time I’ve actually noticed a strong involvement from citizens of other states in the affairs of a different state. And the most important target of this effort is to report the news and to force the media to cover the situation. In other words – get the word out.

For the time being, however, the situation in Iran remains tense and there is no real end to this saga in the near future – as in the next few weeks. But the situation abroad among the followers is not one of pessimism, but one of continued resolve to show their support for Iranian protesters. And it is slowly paying off.

I think one of the most frustrating moments of my life was when the death of Michael Jackson overshadowed the gut-wrenching scenes on Tehran’s streets. Don’t get me wrong – I liked Michael Jackson’s music and I fully understood the grief that his most die-hard fans felt. However, as a human rights activist, I selfishly felt like it was unjust to for the media to pay so much attention to the death of a music icon and ignore the plight of millions of people.

It is a standard media practice, though.

There are two things that every reporter must know in order to be a good reporter. A) The media gives the public what they are most interested in and B) people generally have a very short-attention span so media has to quickly identify and deliver on them. Of course, media can also skillfully – and wrongfully – work to divert people’s attention in a general direction so that they could then feed them what it wants – and most successful media outlets nowadays do that now and then. But not ever member of the public is gullible.

The most striking example of this phenomenon is the saga of Balloon Boy. The media sensed that it was a story that held potential interest for the public and once it had garnered their attention, it fed the frenzy frantically. Even though a minority kept screaming that it was not as important as some other events on that same day – some even refused to believe the boy was in the balloon -, the majority of the public wanted to know. The media delivered.

But the death of Michael Jackson taught me something else. If the minority holds onto its interest and continues to voice its concern, the media has to cater to it. Nov 4 was the day I realized that this was not just possible, but real. That you can actually lobby the media even if you don’t have money is a clear victory for Iran’s supporters abroad.

However, it does come at a price. Yesterday, in the heat of the happenings in Iran, I noticed that at least two twitter user who have been active throughout this crisis were emotionally being pained by the brutality to the point of crying. Others – including myself – have faced similar situations where while you’re attempting to report the news firsthand and lobby the media to participate, you start to feel the effects of the pain and trauma. PTSD is pretty common among war reporters and it seems like some supporters of Iran abroad on the social networking sites are feeling it too.

But the emotional outflow is well-worth it in the sense that at the end of the day, a majority of media organizations that were being targeted on November 4 responded by covering the event. Maybe the coverage was not as overly enthusiastic as the goal was – but given the time that has passed, but it gives us all renewed hope that lobbying the media through social networking sites is very effective – if the lobby holds together long enough.

At the same time, millions of others spent at least some part of the day reading what was being passed along on social networking sites by the Green lobby. A clear example of this from yesterday was Diego Arria – a former Assistant Secretary General of the United Nations – who actually took part in tweeting with the Green lobby.

This is both inspirational and beneficial. Such movements abroad could serve the purpose of human rights not just in Iran, but also in other parts of world in times of crisis. Media is perhaps the most powerful non-paid lobby when it comes to swaying a government’s policy. It brings results because the media has turned into one of the easiest ways to let your government know what you want it to do. An example of this was President Barack Obama’s yesterday’s clear message to the Iranian protesters in his statement where he said, “The American people have great respect for the people of Iran and their rich history. The world continues to bear witness to their powerful calls for justice, and their courageous pursuit of universal rights.”

The Iranian people have done their part so far for attaining social justice and universal human rights, but so has the Green lobby outside Iran. And while Iranians’ cry for their rights is being heard around the world, it is in a significant way, also the cry of others who want them to attain those rights.

This post is unique to DailyNiteOwl

(This post was written on November 3)

16 Aban

First of all, I must say that I admire and respect Roger Cohen. He has a been a vital asset for the international community in discerning truth from fiction when it came to the ongoing crisis in Iran. However, his recent article in The New York Times angered me not because it is ridiculously flawed – it is not – but because I did not expect Cohen to be so shallow in thought on protest and “revolution”.

In his article, Cohen asks a question that confounded me:

In 1989, the revolutionary year, the Tiananmen Square massacre happened in Beijing and, five months later, the division of Europe ended with the fall of the Wall in Berlin. Could it have been otherwise? Might China have opened to greater democracy while European uprisings were shot down?

We cannot know any more than we know what lies on the road not taken or what a pregnant glance exchanged but never explored might have yielded.

Well, I respectfully beg to differ on the comparison between Eastern Europe and China. We do know: the respective outcomes of the movements in 1989 could not have been otherwise. For what Mr. Cohen fails to mention is that the political situations in China and Eastern Europe were worlds apart.

The Eastern Bloc, along with the USSR, was economically feeble, with rampant problems plaguing it for decades. The governments had lost trust to the point where 99% of the people of Poland voted for the anti-communist Solidarity party in the 1989 elections. At the same time, authoritarianism had waned considerably in the region.

Eastern Europe had been steadily opening up its approach to popular dissent among its citizens. Glasnost and perestroika, Gorbachev’s policies that radically opened up Soviet society, had been in effect for years. The USSR had relaxed its intervention in the internal affairs of Eastern European countries, and governments were more ready for peaceful negotiations than for massacres.

This was not the case in the People’s Republic of China in 1989. The country’s political elite had been strengthened by the West so that China could be used as a pawn against the USSR in the Cold War. Domestic policy was pretty much the same as it was under Chairman Mao.

Furthermore, the West was not really that interested in negotiations with the Chinese over human rights issues as they were in the case of Eastern Europe, and China’s government was not being pounded as much as its less fortunate Communist counterparts by internal problems. While the Eastern European economy had gone from relatively good to very bad, the Chinese economy had improved significantly since Mao’s disastrous utopian schemes.

These differences are the key to understanding why the 1989 revolutionary wave failed in China and succeeded in Eastern Europe. Yet, to go further and to arrive at the heart of Cohen’s analysis and our discussion, both these revolutionary waves are inapplicable in the current Iranian situation. Unlike Eastern Europe, the Greens do not form an almost uniform majority of the populace, but unlike China, their numbers are much higher and they are distributed across the country more uniformly.

The position of the Iranian Government is neither absolutely safe nor absolutely vulnerable like Eastern Europe 1989. There is growing dissent among former members of the government and the elite’s clerics. Finally, the Government’s policies on access to information are neither open like those during the Eastern European uprisings nor utterly closed like those in China. Although pro-Green media have been largely blacked out now, before the protests the anti-establishment faction of the population had relatively good access to news and analysis.

Given these circumstances, the best way to describe the situation in Iran is that of stalemate. The government cannot possibly attempt to repeat the Tiananmen Square suppression of 1989 because it could bring undesired results. It would alienate the already-raging opposition clerics, politicians within the government who are sympathetic to Greens, and supporters of the government within the population. This could prove disastrous.

The Greens, on the other hand, do not have a quick victory in sight. Even if Mir Hossein Mousavi marched his supporters and took over government buildings, the Revolutionary Guard would step in and massacre them. The idea that three million protesters are unstoppable because no one can halt millions is naïve.

There is an old fable in Persian: If 20 sparrows are perched on a tree and you shoot one, how many sparrows remain? The answer is none. You don’t have to kill a million people to scatter two million. You only need to kill a thousand or so, and the government of Iran seems to have the power to do so if it is pushed too far too soon.

So, for now, both sides are reluctant to escalate the situation further because neither is prepared or ready to strike a killer blow. Tomorrow’s 13 Aban protests throughout Iran will be yet another replay of strategies. The protesters will attempt to isolate the government further, and the government will attempt to emerge with minimal casualties inflicted upon the populace and minimal damage to its grip on power. Both sides will likely retire after the showdown to prepare for forthcoming rounds. Unlike China and Eastern Europe in 1989, we are in for a very long haul.

Published Originally on Enduring America http://tinyurl.com/yhac2ll

Originally written on November 1

Dr. Abdullah Abdullah announced today that he would not be participating in the upcoming Nov. 7 run-off against Hamid Karzai. The decision comes at Abdullah Abdullaha time when both Afghans and the West are waiting patiently for a new government so both political factions can develop a much-needed plan to urgently deal with the rising tide of insecurity in the country. However, Abdullah’s decision to back out may just plunge Afghanistan into chaos.


Abdullah’s decision is rooted in two main issues. The first was the retention of Azizullah Lodin as head of the Independent Election Commission. A Karzai appointee, Lodin is seen by Abdullah’s camp and a large portion of the population as being heavily biased in favor of the President. Under his leadership, the 20 August election was so rigged that, after weeks of scrutiny and debate, a Karzai first-round victory had to be converted into a run-off. So it is no surprise that Abdullah wants Lodin and several other officials out.

Afghanistan’s electorate is very unevenly distributed on a very rugged and often inaccessible terrain. Difficulties are compounded because security is at its worst since the US-led invasion in 2001. Under these circumstances, it would be almost impossible for elections to be free and fair with or without Lodin. His presence, however, will make matters even worse.

The other, equally important issue for Abdullah was a change in Afghanistan’s constitution in order to create the post of Prime Minister, with Abdullah or one of his key supporters could be appointed to that position. This is often kept under wraps by the media and its euphemism “a power-sharing deal”.

The negotiations are caught up in ethnic politics. Karzai belongs to the Pashtun ethnic group to which most of the Taliban also belong. Abdullah gets most of his support from the Tajik, the second-largest ethnic group. Together, Pashtuns and Tajiks make up more than three-quarters of Afghanistan’s population.

Since the constitution was drafted, the main point of contention between the two ethnic factions has been over strong presidential government. As Pashtuns make up 40 percent of Afghanistan’s population, versus the Tajiks’ 30 percent, % of the population, a Pashtun President is almost guaranteed.

This would be balanced if a Parliament-appointed prime minister was established.
Even though Pashtuns make up a larger share of the population, they are more widely dispersed across the country. This dilutes their political power, as Pashtuns almost always receive a smaller percentage of seats in the Parliament compared to their numerical supremacy than they would if they weren’t as widely distributed. This gap was evident in Afghanistan’s first Parliament, elected in 2005, where a Tajik narrowly beat a Pashtun to become the Speaker.

Under these circumstances, Karzai’s insistence upon not sacking Lodin is both naïve and politically disastrous. However, Abdullah’s insistence upon forcing a constitutional change before an election is equally naïve. Hours before Abdullah’s announcement, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton noted that the legitimacy of the election would not be questioned because of Abdullah’s departure. This is a clear signal to Abdullah that, in the next week before the run-off, there simply is not enough time or patience left for the West to sit down with Karzai and persuade him to meet Abdullah’s demands.

However, Abdullah represents a large segment of the Afghan population. His departure from the election is surely going to rouse their discontent with not just Karzai but also the US. This is dangerous for Washington: most of Karzai’s support comes from areas that are hostile towards the US but Abdullah is backed by regions that are for the most part pro-US. If the situation is not handled delicately by the West, it risks losing the support of the majority of Afghanistan’s population and plunging the relatively safer areas into insecurity as well.

A compromise solution is urgently needed to solve this crisis. If Karzai were to meet half of Abdullah’s demands and postpone the other half for after the election, chaos might be averted. Removing Lodin and other officials from their posts would make the elections more acceptable to the populace. This in turn would give both Karzai and Abdullah enough leverage to change the constitution.

Under the current circumstances, even though Abdullah has refrained from asking his supporters to boycott the election or come out to streets, the situation remains critical. The West might have to step in once again to salvage the peace.

Published Originally on Enduring America http://enduringamerica.com/2009/11/01/emergency-analysis-josh-shahryar-on-afghanistans-political-turmoil/

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