In this undated photo, members of the Islamic Republic of Iran Army or Artesh are seen during a parade.
(First, a Happy New Year to everyone… Let’s hope 2010 opens the doors of peace, justice, equality and truth to us all and that human rights are respected and expanded throughout the world.)
For the past several months, there have been rumors that elements inside Iran’s main army ‘Artesh’ are discontent with the continued repression against peaceful protesters by the Iranian government. First there was a story by overseas Iranian website Gooya. The story claimed that several officers within Artesh had sent out a letter denouncing the regime’s brutal suppression tactics against the Green Movement. It also warned the government that it will take action if violence against protesters continues.
I was not going to write anything about this. But in the face of continued publicity for this letter, I am forced to speak out.
The letter was not signed. There were no names. There were no ranks. There was no original copy of the letter. It was not indicated who it was sent by or the date when it was written. Recently, a similar letter – with different wording – was released on another news websites with the same remarks and same warning. This has been a source of hope for some people supporting the Green Movement. But so far, there has been almost nothing to back this up.
(English Translation of the letter on HomyLaFayette’s blog)
I have been following both letters keenly for the past month. However, I have been unable to confirm their contents through any of my sources and I mean none. I have also not seen anyone else in the mainstream media or in the blogosphere and underground media substantiate the contents of any of these letters. This is sufficient for me to disregard both letters as fictitious.
But let’s for a minute imagine that the letters are credible. What has Artesh done so far? Have they tried to stop the IRGC or Basij? Or the riot police or regular coppers? No. They have done absolutely nothing. Even when dozens were killed on Ashura, Artesh remained silent as it always has. But let us take it up as far as we can. Let’s say the officers mentioned in the letter are going to strike against the government. What would the result be? Are these few people going to be able to take down the government? The answer is no. Finally, let’s just assume for the sake of assumption that their numbers are higher and that they have the loyalty of as much as half of Artesh. The government still has the allegiance of the other half and of IRGC, Basij and the police.
In that case, Iran would be driven into something that I abhor even mentioning the name of – civil war. Thousands would be killed, hundreds of thousands would be injured, millions would be homeless, Iran’s economy would collapse, and its infrastructure would be completely razed. And I honestly don’t even want to mention what would happen to the lives of the children of Iran if it drags on for years.
So the bottom line is: I am certain that the letters released under Artesh’s name are fake and, furthermore, I’m very happy that they are.
You hit the truth, and the Artesh know this as much as you and everyone reading this. – They can’t overthrow the Government, they can’t do anything unless the people overthrow the government.
There are no letters – I would think that I would have been told that since I have pretty good information about what goes on in the Artesh. – That said, I’m just a peripherally involved and not “in the loop”.
The Army won’t intervene when this is at the disadvantage of the people that they are there to protect. They will not start a civil war, but they will defend themselves and the people of Iran if it comes that far. – Of course, there are two sides to each coin, and even within the IRGC and Sepah there are two sides.
The destabilization of the government is neccesary to allow the people to win their freedom, and to show that they are ready to take the final steps to overthrow the government and its supporters. I do hope that violence will not be the conclusion of this destabilization, but that it is possible to reach the end without unneccesary bloodshed.
There is still quite a long way to go before freedom becomes a possibility and hopefully a reality, but there is most definately an end in sight. When the time comes, the Artesh will be ready and help to stabilize and rebuild the country and a new government according to the people’s wishes.
While I have no reason to argue with your analysis of the letter, I do think that a political split within the military does not necessarily imply a civil war. Take for example the nonviolent People Power Revolution in the Philippines in 1986. This was accelerated precisely by a splintering of the military.
See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People_Power_Revolution#Events_of_the_revolution
Arthur,
Sure, we can agree to disagree here. The reason I believe what I do re; Civil War is because Artesh is not the only army in Iran. The IRGC is equally as powerful and even though it has smaller numbers, it is far more well-trained and well-equipped than the regular army.
I’m sorry to say this but I almost 100% disagree w/ your statment here
1st of all just imagin yourself as a member of Artesh, trained by patriots to be loyal to the country and your duty only to defend the people against any internal or externnal threat, also under a regime that pays the least respect and attention to Artesh & instead supplying the IRGC w/ anything they need, any memebers of artesh I’ve ever had contact with have disagreement with the current regime (except some high rank officials positioned by the regime)
2nd do you expect them to identify themselves, sign letters, blow their covers & get killed. Thet’d be the most stuppid thing to do
3rd. IRGC is only well equipped with air strike, navy & long range defense systems to be used in nation to nation combat. IRGC soldiers & officers don’t have the dicipline there is in Artesh and most are well connected to regime, so theyy are no match to Artesh in close face to face combat
4th. Few thousand IRGC can not resist Artesh w/millions of people backing, all Artesh needs to do is to use ex-soldier volonteers and become a million strong military foce
5th case of civil war is out of question, it will take days to free Iran. 100K IRGC vs. 70 million ppl backed by Artesh will have only one option to disarm or get crushed and get hunted down by the people for ever
6th. I only see a negative intention in your statement instead of giving people hope
I don’t see why anyone would suggest the pro-Islamic Republic agents wrote this message
let’s think this statement is a hoax and its authors are not the military personal. in that case it’s a wake up call to the military personal reminding them of their #1 duty which is protesting the lives & properties of the people & national interest and not protecting the self-interested rulers. In such case, it gives the regime & the IRGC mafia a warning as well that if continue its brutal oppression, they may face not only defensive & offensive civilian resistance, but also organized armed military resistance which in that case regime will be overthrown without any doubt
Iranian air force is listed above all other signees & the truth is they are the ones who’ve always had disagreement with this regime. they were all loyal to the Shah and Iranian patriots & Khomeini executed many of their generals and the reason Islamic Republic couldn’t replace them was because they were the best pilots in the world & all trained by the US air force, some of my best friends in Iran were from the Air Force families & I spent many days hanging out in the air force towns (residential sections of AF base) whe I was a teenager, they have always hated the regime
the 2nd signee from the top of the list are Isfahan 33 division. My grandfather is from Isfahan & him and my uncles used to live across street from 33 division (Farah-abad street)and also he was a former mid-rank military personal resigned before the revolution to start spend the rest of his life running his business. Every evening his house was full of his high-ranked former fellow Arteshies. They all were non-religious, I’d seen every single one of them drinking alcohol with him & most important than that all against the ruling regime. All used to curse at Mullah & the regime & see them responsible for all death and destruction including Iran-Iraq war
If any of you want to see a free Iran, this is the best and quickest solution, Military personal are our patriots & they have no interest in politics and aren’t after power or money, they just wanna free our nation.
Cyrus,
I can tell you discuss all Artesh topics on a very high level of envolvement. Thank you for pointing out your personal points of views.
What strikes me while reading your posts is
1- Your account of “100K IRGC vs. 70 million ppl backed by Artesh” might be somewhat simplistic and disregards the variety of the Iranian population, even if given as a picture, not a prospect. So I am no too sure about “case of civil war is out of question”. There is much at stake for many.
2 – “All used to curse at Mullah & the regime & see them responsible for all death and destruction including Iran-Iraq war” – One could sefely asume that Arteshies disagreeing your grandfather’s views would never have shown up at his place – so given that, your information about the Iranian military might be somewhat biased?
Though I appreciate your efforts to show us different aspects on the topic, you didn’t convince me.
And I totally disagree in your “6th. I only see a negative intention in your statement instead of giving people hope”. As for me, trying to look at things as they are doesn’t neccessarily imply positive or negative intentions. To figure out which possibilities lie ahead to me first of all is a realistic approach.
Hi Josh!
I’m an Iranian and been following your writings for some time now. First I wanted to thank you for your continuous efforts in reporting the events in Iran.
I think there is some misinformation regarding the artesh. I don’t consider them weaker than the IRGC; in fact they are better trained and more disciplined than the IRGC personnel. They are also better equipped in terms of conventional warfare.
The thing that prevents them from intervening is that according the armed forces legislation they are only supposed to guard the borders and protect the soverignty of Iran and they are not allowed to meddle in politics (unlike the IRGC).
This is nothing but propaganda coming from exiled iranian sources. They want to further the discord within the IRI and this is an excellent way to go about it.
I have decided to watch and listen to the news out of iran ,and not to debate whats going on there.Because its something that no one can change.iraq has sharia law also,that’s what they wanted,America installed it.Evolution is taking place in those countries,they need to evolve.what America went thru 200 years ago.they are just so far behind us.The Internet caused it in iran,The people just want to have contact with the world,they are young,being ruled by old .its bound to happen and world just has to stay out of it.
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